February Market Action

This market's February beat last February 2014 pending sales by 37% and closings by 12%, in a demonstration of the strength of this year's market.

A look at Portland's areas show the lowest days on market in NE Portland at 60, as compared to the market's average of 81 days. These DOM reflect both the home that sold in four days with multiple offers and the home on the busy street with orange shag carpeting that was a bit too ambitious in it's pricing.

Sellers, yes-  it is much easier to get your home sold in the current market. However, the time spent in preparing it properly can mean the difference of tens of thousands of dollars in your net proceeds, so this is no time to be complacent if you truly wish to capitalize on your investment.

Buyers, don't be disheartened. The time spent in discussing a good strategy ahead of looking at any homes, and recalibrating often, can mean all the difference in your success.

The Inside Scoop: Real Cash Sales & Imaginary Offers

Cash sales have added to the heat in Portland's real estate market in all price ranges, including the very top.  As I've perceived this even more over the last year both while reviewing offers as the listing agent, and competing against cash with purchasing clients, I decided to do a more definitive search and look at harder numbers. I looked at two search areas, greater SE Portland and SW Portland with the same parameters; $300-900,000 in the last three months. Of the 212 sales in SE during this period, 23% were cash. In SW there were 259 sales and 18% of those in cash.

Why is this important? What does it mean?

With appraisals not able to keep up with rising values in some of our hottest neighborhoods, such as the Hawthorne area, it's safer for a seller to accept a cash offer as no bank appraisal is involved. As a buyers agent, cash will often dominate over a higher offer with conventional funding because of this reason.

That is why I have instituted making a practice offer on an imaginary house ahead of waiting to write once we have found "the one" when time is short and tensions are high. I can go over all the possible terms that can be changed on the offer, giving us the luxury of deciding ahead what the buyer is both willing and able to do.

Many colleagues are reporting their clients will lose the first house because of this unfamiliarity.  While I wish I could wave a magic wand over a client's bank account, this is the next best thing.

Home Sweet Home vs Lumber Liquidators

I toured a home in the Rose City area with clients last year that had something akin to that "new car smell,"  instead with fresh paint.  After a few minutes in the house my eyes began to water.

The house was new construction, Craftsman style. The gleaming surfaces and open floor plan was appealing. But on closer inspection one could see the cabinets, built-in's  and box beamed ceilings were painted MDF.  New carpet covered the second floor rooms.   Even though the house was fully staged, the windows both up and downstairs had been left slightly ajar.  The only natural wood product in the home was on the floor, finished a dark contrasting tone.  In short, it was clear the house was filled with the off-gassing of the compounds used in all the finishes, more so than I had ever experienced in ten years of real estate work.  I had serious concerns about my clients considering moving into this house, as it was impossible to say how long the house would be so toxic, so I advised against this one.  The listing agent asked me to leave the doors and windows open.

Recent headlines have reported Lumber Liquidators as selling laminate flooring product with high levels of formaldehyde, bringing this topic to the fore again. While we now know that "new car smell" are VOC's from new materials used in their manufacture, what we did not know was that we were inhaling chemical compounds. These compounds are in everything from non-flammable pajamas and new mattresses to simple paint and are not heavily regulated in our country.

In today's marketplace, there are often alternatives choices that one can make when choosing finishes and .  Green homes not only have higher standards for energy savings, but also address cleaner air. It gives the saying "home sweet home" a whole new meaning.

Mangia! Portland Dining Month

Three courses at some of Portland's finest restaurants for $29, including one of my personal favorites, Bar Avignon.  I would say more, but I don't like to talk with my mouth full.

See menus here.

PNCA's New Building: Artfully Brought Back to Life

PNCA, Pacific Northwest College of Art, had it's beginnings in the Portland Art Museum and has been at 12th and Johnson since the late 90's. The Johnson property has since been sold and PNCA has officially moved into it's stunning new digs at 511 NW Broadway, near the North Park Blocks. This 34 million renovation, includes new architectural elements by Brad Cloepfil of Allied Works, as well as uncovering gorgeous period details from the original 1919 building, formerly a US Post Office.  Newly named the Arlene and Howard Schnitzer Center for Art and Design, this location doubles the Johnson square footage and features public spaces on the first two floors including a cafe.

The area is shaping up to be an art hub with their nearby partner the Museum of Contemporary Craft and the student housing on the Park Blocks, aptly called Arthouse.

Our North Park blocks are polishing up beautifully.

ADU's Are Trending Hot

ADU's are accessory dwelling units. Not such a sexy word, but the concept is exciting. The data from  2013 shows that the average cost of a detached ADU costs $90,000 and $45,000 for attached (basement) units.  Rental income looks to offset the payback period at under ten years with a good income flow to follow.  The only only city with more ADU's than Portland is Vancouver, BC.

Aside from potential housing to keep aging parents nearby, another concept of the ADU is to live in the primary house  while renting the ADU and when one wishes to downsize,  move into the ADU and begin renting the primary house.

Because Multnomah county is promoting denser housing, the normal $8,000-$13,000 fee of System Development Charges have been waived through July 2016.

With the trend of ADU's picking up speed, there is a local blog devoted to the many details of the process and what looks to be a really interesting ADU tour in NE and SE Portland coming up at the end of May which includes a workshop.

National Radon Action Month

There are so many misconceptions about radon, especially where it's likely to be in a home. Many buyers ask if a radon test is necessary if there is no basement in a home. Yes, it is.  Some clients may have seen this Portland map which may lead them to think they are not in a hot area and therefore that a test may not be necessary. Yes, it is.

Fact: radon is the second leading cause of lung cancer in the U.S. Fact: radon can be in any neighborhood, one home can have it while their neighbor may not. Fact: tests have become easier, more reliable and mitigating radon is relatively simple.

Here's a link to the EPA's site on radon. If you would like to test your home, contact me and I will be happy to share some vendors that can test for you.

http://www.epa.gov/radon/nram/public.html

December Market Action: What the Future Holds

 

The tea leaves of the coming year must be read by looking over the past 12 months, and even the years before. A striking note is the decrease in inventory over the last 3 years. Inventory simply means that if no other homes were allowed to enter the market place, how long would it take the existing homes, or inventory, to sell? A past truism is that the market is evenly divided between buyers and sellers at 6 months of inventory. A simple comparison showed 2012 with the lowest level at 3.6 months up to 7. 2013 gave us 3 months of inventory below three months with a high of 4.7. 2014 gave us 6 months of inventory below 3 months. Clearly the tide has turned and as Warren Buffet so graphically put it, the time to buy real estate is when the "blood is running in the street", as the lower inventory and improving market have increased our prices.

For the mortal souls among us whose real estate holdings are our primary residences, one does not go flying about buying and selling, trying to time the market. One buys and sells as our lives evolve. For buyers in this market, it requires a great partnership with a realtor who can get you in a property the first day it's on the market, guide you in writing a skilled and compelling offer, and helping to get on the other side of the inspection period without medication.

On the listing side, one must maximize a homes strengths while trying to diminish possible objections ahead of going on the market. While the inventory is very low, buyers are more discriminating than in 2006 when anything went because values were going no where but up. Today's buyer knows that is not so, and poor locations or conditions that are not addressed will end up creating a property to push DOM (days on market) beyond the norm.

We expect steady appreciation, and hopefully on a more sustainable level over the next several years. Portland is proving to be an attractive place to live, as our burgeoning traffic suggests. It does cause one ponder strategically the next big move. Urban and walkable? Or bucolic suburb and a longer commute?

Read the whole Market Action Report by clicking on the icon above.

Fireside Chat

You know those gorgeous Portland spring days when you forgive every drop of rain you've ever experienced? Yesterday was one of those, and luckily I had a lunch date with two wonderful former clients at The Fireside on NW 23rd. It seems a far cry from the sad days when businesses here were closing left and right. Across the street is the mega popular Salt and Straw and the newest Bamboo Sushi and now the former Music Millenium (where I pored over many a CD back in the day) has risen from the ashes to return as The Fireside.

It did not disappoint. The decor is modern but very northwest at the same time. Sadly, I could not partake of the cocktails, which I understand are fabulous, during my lunch, but the food was well priced, and up to the standards that Portland restaurants must meet now- super fresh and top quality ingredients, well prepared. Both veggie and meat options are well represented. Next time, where's my cocktail?

How I Spent the Last Eight Years in Real Estate

My last few years in the Portland real estate market have been my busiest, so as I re-commit to my updating my website, I can't help but ponder on the past a bit before I move forward.  I came into residential real estate as the market began to heat up in 2005. Over the next year the market shifted and very soon offer writing became very competitive, and strategies such as presenting them in person to the sellers when allowed, shortening inspection periods or waiving contingencies, and figuring out what the seller needed so as to get ahead of the competition were necessary for success.  Conversely, when the market grew tougher I was able to win a lot of concessions from sellers on behalf of my clients that were buying. Concessions in price of course, and something the market press seemed to ignore, large repair concessions such as completely replacing siding and comprehensive general repairs. In the slower market days there was a huge gap between sellers and buyers. Sellers all too clearly remembered what their neighbors house had sold for, compared to what it what it would sell for in later days and perceived a huge loss before even putting a home on the market. Buyers  were few and very wary of purchasing a home that was priced too high. What if they lost their job and needed to re-sell? Suddenly that home on a busy street that would have sold in a day, was all but unsaleable except at a huge discount. Buyers did not want to be in a precarious position and were adamant that the risk of buying a home would be minimized by their insistence on value, location and condition. Negotiating between these polarized points became a skill that I had to hone again and again. I've wonder if during this period that perhaps I should have introduced myself as a professional negotiator rather than a Realtor. I've found it so valuable to the outcome of my real estate transactions that several years ago I earned a designation in negotiation techniques. It's made performing my job much more effective.

As a listing broker, I've always enjoying preparing homes for the market and photographing them to entice the most visits and attract offers. The slow market for sellers convinced them that this was both necessary and effective. Pre-inspections gave the home-owner a little more control over the buyers inspection and repair process and a better chance of success with nervous purchasers. Through it all, buyers were still buying and one needed simultaneously to earn their trust and desire for the home.

Now that our market has improved, I see a mix of the heydey skills and the tough market skills are needed. Counseling clients, both buyers and sellers, on what to expect and to prepare for before we even begin is very important to their success. While good properties are selling fast, staging can still effect the quality of an offer or whether one can get multiple, over-asking price offers. Condition is still important. Qualifying the right buyer in a multiple offer scenario is also important. Do you want to take your home off the market only to have the transaction fall apart weeks later, losing market momentum and affecting the price? For buyers, while many homes receive multiple offers, one offer is still being accepted- how can it be our offer? How can we be the best qualified buyer? There are strategies that can and must be discussed before one is in the throes of the market.

What did I learn about real estate during the last several years in both "good" and "bad" markets? Residential real estate is about where we live, and where we live changes no matter the marketplace. Every transaction has been an opportunity to improve my skills for my own sense of satisfaction and influence a good result for my clients. In one of our slowest real estate years, 2011, I reached number one in sales in my office of fifty and the top ten percent of my company, a company that is at the top of sales in the Portland market. I'm not able to choose the real estate market conditions that I guide my clients through, but it feels very good to know they can be navigated no matter what the conditions are. Noticing and responding to those market conditions requires both command and subtlety. Based on the last eight years I know that change is coming and constant and manageable and no matter what they call it, it will never be boring.

Irvington Lovely

You know how neighborhoods work. Even the most premium neighborhoods have their good and "bad" streets once you get to know them. Irvington is no different. This home is sited on a premium street just north of Thompson. Not as large as some of it's neighbors, the home has more to offer than those with less wisely used space. Three bedrooms upstairs with a master bath is what most families are looking for and all generously sized. Thanks to two master closets, the master bath was easily added fairly recently enabling two baths on the upstairs level. Need a guest room/den? A full, legal egress bedroom is downstairs. Family/media room? Check. Yard? Yes, and not the postage stamped size one often finds. To my vintage-loving eye, the best parts of the home were the original box beamed ceilings and wainscoting in the dining room and living room, the gorgeous staircase and Craftsman tiled fireplace. Sadly, so many of these homes have ripped them out over time, and many in the 1970's (of all eras to decide to remodel). Multiple offers within a few days. Listed at $725,000. More photos here.

Alberta Arts Mid-Century

The quality of craftsmanship and details in some vintage homes never ceases to amaze me. This home has the original marmoleum. Sixty years old and in perfect condition. It was coved up the walls and cut to lay perfectly around the kitchen cabinets. A large swath of glass block by the entry way allows both light and privacy. A simple yet cunning closet opens both on the main hallway and inside the main hall bathroom. Besides being built like a ship, with nary a sway in the main floor hardwoods, the layout both up and down are extremely liveable. And, lucky for this house, a New Seasons decided to build less than two blocks away.  No wonder this home had multiple over-asking offers within days.

East Bank Delights

If you haven't made it over here aside from an OMSI visit, you really must check out the great finds of the Eastbank area, just off the Water Street Exit of I-5. My favorite yoga place, Yoga Bhoga moved here some time ago, now it's been joined by Water Avenue Coffee, Bunk Sandwich Bar, and now Clive Coffee and the brick and mortar address of Boke Bowl.

Most people have heard of Bunk Sandwich Bar, whose first place on SE Morrison was a breakout success with lines out the door for their sandwiches featuring everything from pork belly to meatballs. Water Avenue is absolutely one of my favorite coffee shops, with it's dense yet smooth coffee which is house roasted and it's quietly hip environment.  Clive Coffee opened next door, a beautifully appointed shop selling everything necessary for making good coffee at home as well giving "home barista" classes. You can take home a coffee maker ranging in price from $18 to $6,500 along with well designed cups to hold your coffee in.

Boke Bowl opened it's much anticipated ramen shop, after "popping up" in several established restaurants and taking over their kitchens for the day. It does not disappoint. Pretty simple, choose your broth bowl, add extra fixings if you like, and slurping happiness is a sure thing. We chose the fried chicken and cornmeal fried oysters for sides and were very happy. The design of the restaurant is fun as well with it's bright pops of orange, a mix of communal and small tables and even their own hot sauces to spice up your bowl

The Eastbank Commerce Center across the street also holds Fleur Dy Lys nail studio, a super hip nail place that is the antithesis to the local mall nail factory and Clark Lewis restaurant- the first sign of civilization that appeared years ago in this very cool industrial setting.

Raleigh Park MidCentury

This new listing couldn't get much better in terms of floor plan- a rare find, this 3100 square feet one level holds a great room and kitchen which looks out to the large private backyard on a completely flat almost half-acre lot, with deck and sport court. The  four bedrooms are on a totally separate wing of the home, so you can entertain friends on one end, and simultaneously  find peace and quiet in the other. There is also another family area with built in desks that would make a great study area or media room. While a few of the baths could use some updating, the home is truly move-in ready. $700,000

Midcentury Cool or Money Pit?

You have to forgive me. I've walked through hundreds of homes and viewed many many thousands.  Because of this home saturation, I appreciate the qualities in a home that make it unique, and given my penchant for vintage and mid-century homes, I had to visit this new listing and wonder who its new owners will be.

The home was built in 1947, and obviously an architect designed place in the Vermont Hills area of SW Portland, situated beautifully on a half acre+ lot, a cross between NW regional and Eichler. The home is divided into two wings, which is interesting because the main wing holding the master and living room has a roof that breaks in the center and wings out to either direction. When you first enter the home through the other wing by the carport, where the kitchen, dining room and extra bedrooms lay immediately to the right. This architectural detail was often used in this era providing separation between the adults and children- unseen in todays layouts. To get to the living room and master, you pass through a long, dark entry hallway with clerestory windows that gently inclines for about 60 feet. Suddenly the huge living room opens up before you,  church-like with a massive vaulted ceiling with a floor to ceiling fireplace facing a floor to ceiling window. On either side of the fireplace double entries lead up to the master and office, with a wet bar on the back side of the fireplace. Of course, this makes sense- who wants to carry a martini up that hallway?

The living room is a fabulous entertaining area that is begging for some great multiple lighting fixtures- various Nelson lamps? The tiny slider's scale seems off, but it opens to a great patio. Some of the materials used were not the best quality (the sheathing under the eaves is falling apart), but others, like the organic tile in a shower and by the copper fireplace are first rate.

The kitchen and dining area need a re-design- I'm positive this architect was not a cook, but the shared space could translate to intimate dinners for 12 as the dining area is generous but cozy.

The home is sold as-is with 3,300 square feet which may not include additional square footage below grade. Could still be priced high for the condition at $339,000.  You tell me, masterpiece or money pit? I'll tell you, I wish I could remodel it myself. More photos.

Cookie Party 2011

While a little late, I really feel I need to share the outcome of the "cookie party" I have hosted at the Parry Center, now for the fifth year. Many of you donated to the sock, underwear and pajama drive that accompanied my visit. This year, was a banner year of donations- over $700 of soft, fuzzy flannels and Hello Kitty cuteness collected from clients, friends, family and my Windermere office. The Parry Center was overjoyed to have them for the kids.

My two daughters, Lauren and Erin, with room mate Sheila, hosted close to 50 children in two groups divided by age that went  from about 5 to 16. Each child had seven cookies to decorate and took close to an hour festooning them with multiple layers of frosting and sprinkles. The Parry staff seemed to agree that the older children enjoyed the activity even more than the little ones! My Fir Grove Garden Club spent several hours baking to provide these budding artists their cookie palettes. Cookies that survive the decorating session are often given as gifts from the children to their family.

Thank you everyone so much for making this possible for the Parry children- it is much anticipated by children and staff. I can't tell you how much I appreciate your support.

Seattle Long Weekend

The Gaugain exhibit at SAM was a great excuse to duck out of Portland for a few days to explore our northern city-cousin, Seattle.  The first order, of course, is where to eat. Our mission was further complicated by family visiting from San Francisco, both discerning diners and travelers. Luckily our family likes to eat both low and high "on the hog," so we had lots of latitude for both sightseeing and dining.

Of course, we went to Pike's Market to see fish getting tossed about, the the very cool retro neon festooning the market ceilings, but a fun distraction was a couple having their wedding pictures taken in the middle of the fish market- proving that Portland is not the only entertaining NW city. Beecher's cheese is across the street and a fortifying cup of liquidy cheese sauce with penne is a great belly warming stop.

This is my third trip to the central Seattle Library, which is truly jaw dropping. The architecture from the exterior cantilevers the building like a glass accordion. From the interior this creates gorgeous light spilling in through the structure. Neon lime escalators move you upstairs. A bank of displays, show in real time, book titles being checked out of the library.

The Gaugain exhibit at SAM is the only American stop of the show, a mix of 60 Polynesian sculptures and art displayed alongside 60 of the  painter's works and is showing until late April- very enjoyable and really puts the artists work into context.

Dinner at Spinasse is a must for northern Italian, and probably the best food I have had in Seattle. A new discovery for us was Sitka and Spruce, in lovely spot in the Melrose Market on Capitol Hill that we went to for lunch. Sitka has a middle eastern influence on the best seasonal NW ingredients served in a French bistro atmosphere. Also not to miss in the same Melrose Market are the young bearded butchers sawing hanging sides of beef a few steps away, and within sight, of a very tasty wine bar and coffee shop, Ferd'nands. Other stops included Ballard Street to see Curtis Steiners jewelry store and a few oysters at the Walrus and the Carpenter- which alas had a two hour wait list! Waiting list first, and then shopping is advisable, dear visitor.  For atmosphere, stop by the Zig Zag Cafe for a late-night cocktail. The setting feels like a 1940's intimate club, complete with a vintage-clad bartender and women that actually wear filmy dresses in the NW winter.

Coming back home after a three night stay at the Hotel Andra (sister hotel to our Modera) made me appreciate both of our cities all the more.  More photos...

Warren Buffet's "Millions of Homes"

In a live appearance on CNBC's Squawk Box this morning the "Oracle of Omaha,"  Warren Buffet, shared that he would buy millions of single family homes at this time were it practical for him to do so, as he believes they are an even better long-term investment than stocks.

The colorful Buffet is not afraid to blaze his own financial path, saying "You pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus." The same remains true in real estate, where in the height  of the market, many felt comfortable purchasing because so many others were- and when prices were at their highest. While prices are currently at lows not seen since 2003, many buyers are waiting on the sidelines waiting for the reassurance of a "cheery consensus."

The Case Shiller chart shows an "apples to apples" view of the exact same homes as they were purchased and sold since 1987. Portland, Or is one of the twenty housing markets that Case Schiller follows.

Seismic Upgrading

Most Portlanders are aware that we live in a seismically active region. But many people are not aware that older homes built prior to 1960 are not bolted down to their foundations. Such a house would be much more dangerous to both inhabitants and property than one that was secured. There are several companies in town that specialize in seismic strengthening- and you can do so without breaking the bank. While you are at it, perhaps you should add earthquake insurance to your policy- at very little cost it could provide a lot of piece of mind.

You can seismically upgrade yourself, and whether you choose that route or opt to oversee your contractor from an informed position, here's a link to what is involved from Portland Bureau of Development Services.

January Market Action

Admittedly, some realtors seem to be in a constant glass half-full outlook, while others sound like Eeyore on a bad day when asked about the market, I have strived to maintain some balance when looking at the numbers. It's hard to be pessimistic when looking at the metro area in January. There is an extremely low inventory compared to years past, 7 months compared to 11+. While this is not so great when working with a buyer, it does tend to level the playing field between buyers and sellers.

Starting with the bad news, we did see an overall price drop of 6.1% over the last 12 months, while the average home price remained virtually the same at $249,000 from year to year. It looks as if the market under $400,000 will continue  to be very competitive in Portland.

Compared to last January, closed sales are up 18% and pending sales by 22%- a significant jump. The days on market for the start of the year are down to 136 from 160. It will be interesting to see if the trend continues through February.

Looking at a few different Portland areas, N Portland has the lowest DOM (days on market) at 67, while Lake Oswego and West Portland tie at 176. There are a few factors that account for this, price and competition. West Portland had 913 listings on the market at an average price of $366,000 while N Portland had 296 listings and an average sales price of $196,000.

Strangely, it is both a good time to sell and buy. For buyers, it looks as if home prices are dragging along the bottom, and with interest rates at unheard of lows, purchasing hasn't been this affordable in many years. For sellers, the low inventory means lower market times and higher demand for homes that are marketed and priced well.

Read the entire January 2012 Market Action report.